Blog

What’s on our mind? You can read about it in our blog. Whether it’s ideas from the investment services world or concepts from the financial industry, you can read about it here. And once in a while, we may throw in a movie review or some other surprise. So keep checking in. We’re glad to have you reading along. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Third-quarter earnings season effectively kicks off today, and it should be another good one. S&P 500 Index companies are expected to report their ninth consecutive increase in profits and third consecutive quarter with earnings growth...

 

Monday, October 8, 2018

Volatility is heating up in October, with some big drops for stocks late last week. Now let’s put things in perspective. The S&P 500 Index just had its least volatile third quarter since 1963, and it hasn’t closed up or...

 

Friday, October 5, 2018

September’s jobs report (released today) showed nonfarm payrolls grew 134,000 last month, while the unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low. Although the September headline jobs number missed consensus forecasts by about 50,000...

 

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month. Did you know 1 in 8 women will develop invasive breast cancer in their lifetime? After skin cancer it is the mostcommon cancer diagnosed in women.1 Increased screening efforts and early...

 

Friday, September 28, 2018

The Federal Reserve (Fed) wrapped up its most recent monetary policy meeting yesterday by announcing a rate increase – an outcome the markets largely expected. In our view, the Fed’s updated rate projections and an...

 

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Wednesday, September 26, 2018

As hard as it might be to believe, U.S. equities historically have been calm over the past few months. “If all you listened to was the news, you would think markets were having huge bouts of volatility. Turns out, that...

 

Monday, September 24, 2018

It took nearly eight months, but the Dow finally closed at a new all-time high for the first time since late January. Various other indexes have been making new highs for a while now, which begs the question: What does it mean for...

 

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

2018 continues to be a solid year for U.S. equities, even in the face of many well-documented concerns (we’re looking at trade worries and the flattening yield curve here). Want some good news? The calendar may quickly become a...

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

On behalf of the LPL Research team, our thoughts go out to the millions of people who will be impacted by Hurricane Florence. We’ve had many requests this week to look at how equities do around major hurricanes and, using data...

 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) primary manufacturing gauge just posted its strongest reading in 14 years. Is that a clear signal the economic cycle still has fuel left in its tank, or could it mean the good times are...

 

Monday, September 10, 2018

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index moved to a bear market last week, down more than 20% from the late January peak. Although this weakness cast many bearish headlines, here’s the catch: This type of volatility is actually quite...

 

Friday, September 7, 2018

It is #LifeInsuranceAwarenessmonth! Not something people want to talk about but too important to ignore. Use this graphic from http://www.lifehappens.org to see what changes warrant a look in to life insurance. Give us a call and we...

 

Friday, September 7, 2018

After gaining 19.4% last year, the S&P 500 is once again surging in 2018—up nearly 8.0%, with the Nasdaq 14.8% and Russell 2000 11.7% up even more as of 09/06/18. Could there be even more gains in store over the coming year? We...

 

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Mark your calendars, because S&P GICS sectors are scheduled to undergo one of their most significant makeovers in history. Effective September 28, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make significant changes to its Global Industrial...

 

Monday, September 3, 2018

Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason, since it has historically performed the worst. Per Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, “September is...

 

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

In May and June, speculative traders of Treasury futures were taking large short positions, believing that rates would move higher and the short positions would reap a profit. Since then, that net short position has increased by almost...

 

Monday, August 27, 2018

It took nearly seven months, but the S&P 500 Index finally closed at a new all-time high on Friday. Many clues along the way suggested new highs could eventually come, like strong overall market breadth and excellent earnings growth....

 

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Well, today is the day. The bull market that started back in March 2009 is now officially the oldest bull market ever – topping the duration of the bull from the 1990s. We took a deeper dive into this recently in Longest Bull...

 

Monday, August 20, 2018

Emerging market (EM) equities have been under pressure recently thanks to the combination of a stronger U.S. dollar, the ongoing U.S. and China trade dispute, concerns in Argentina, and now worries over the financial stability of...

 

Friday, August 17, 2018

The recent depreciation of the Turkish lira has increased volatility in global markets. Other foreign currencies such as the South African rand have followed suit, leading to U.S. dollar strength and more pressure on broad-based...

 

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Last week’s inflation data showed that pricing pressures are at their strongest point of the economic cycle. To us, these reports are much less alarming than their headline readings suggest. While signs of price and wage...

 

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

The S&P 500 Index is up approximately 8% since May when we were bombarded with warnings to “Sell in May and Go Away.” Remember, the worst six months of the year historically have taken place from May through October, while...

 

Monday, August 6, 2018

Are you looking for a strategy that may give your portfolio a boost during what’s historically been one of the weakest months of the year for stocks? Well, our seasonal analysis in the LPL Chart of the Day highlights specific...

 

Friday, August 3, 2018

The Midyear Outlook 2018 Video Is Here. You’ve read the publication, now it’s time to watch the video! Get a high-level snapshot of what the LPL Research team is watching for the rest of 2018 in our Midyear Outlook 2018:...

 

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

It’s been a difficult stretch for fixed-income investors since yields bottomed in the summer of 2016. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 2-year cumulative total return for the broad high-quality bond market (as represented...

 

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

The surprise summer rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index is on pace to gain for a fourth consecutive month. In fact, should July close in the green, over the past 21 months, the S&P 500 has closed higher all but three times. Here is...

 

Friday, July 20, 2018

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’...

 

Friday, July 20, 2018

Daily Insights The full $500 billion? In an interview aired this morning, President Trump said he is ready to go with tariffs on $500 billion in Chinese imports in an effort to drive an agreement. Tariffs on just $34 billion in...

 

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

The S&P 500 Index is on a three-month winning streak, and more gains may be in store for bulls. As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, in the last 15 instances when the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, and June (like 2018 just...

 

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Daily Insights Powell testifies before Congress. Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell emphasized a “solid pace” of U.S. economic growth in a testimony before Congress on Tuesday, a signal that the Fed plans on...

 

Friday, July 13, 2018

Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, and S&P 500 companies are expected to report an eighth consecutive increase in quarterly profits. Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase for the quarter,...

 

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

In a World of Rising Volatility, Will Opportunities Emerge? Find out in LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens, packed with the latest investment insights and market guidance to take you through the rest of the...

 

Monday, July 2, 2018

One day is hardly anything to get too excited about, but the financials sector finally broke its record 13-session losing streak last Thursday after results from the second phase of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) capital review...

 

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

“We’re going streaking.” -Frank “The Tank” Ricard from Old School The Russell 2000 Index closed higher for the eighth consecutive week last week, its longest win streak since late 2013. In fact, it...

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

Though it comes as no surprise, escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. “We believe fiscal stimulus will offset proposed tariffs and that tensions between the U.S and China will not devolve into...

 

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

The 2018 FIFA World Cup™ kicks off tomorrow, as 32 countries vie for one of the greatest trophies in the world of sports. The tournament has taken place every four years since 1930 (excluding World War II), making this the 21st...

 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

What a year 2018 has been for small caps. With the Russell 2000 Index up about 6% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index up only 2%, it has been quite the year so far for small companies. Tax reform is the big tailwind for the group,...

 

Friday, May 25, 2018

So what do you hear? Are you Team Yanny or Team Laurel? In case you haven’t heard, some people hear the word “Yanny,” while others hear the word Laurel in this epic division. Take a listen here and see what you hear....

 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Things are looking up for George Washington, as the dollar has staged a solid comeback after losing nearly 10% in 2017 and an additional 4% in January. Since its February lows, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied more than 5%. This...

 

Monday, May 21, 2018

Solid economic growth should be good news for emerging market (EM) stocks, which have historically done well when economic growth in EM has accelerated relative to that of developed economies. Economic growth in emerging economies is...

 

Friday, May 18, 2018

As Britain’s painfully complex break from the European Union (EU)—commonly referred to “Brexit”—continues to be worked out, a royal union is coming together over the weekend as Prince Harry and Meghan...

 

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, European economic data reached a noteworthy low on May 7, after Citi’s Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone dipped beneath -100 for the first time since 2011. (Citi’s surprise indexes...

 

Monday, May 14, 2018

The peak earnings narrative has garnered significant attention this earnings season—in part because of a comment by Caterpillar’s management stating that the first quarter may have been the “high-water mark” for...

 

Friday, May 11, 2018

The S&P 500 Index closed at its highest level since March 16 yesterday and is now up 1.85% for the year. But, what’s the significance? Well, since 1970, when the S&P 500 has closed higher year-to-date (on any day) during the...

 

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Inflation is in the headlines again after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell versus March readings. Headline CPI, which measures the prices that consumers pay for goods and...

 

Monday, May 7, 2018

As the calendar turns to May, it also means the current economic expansion is now 107 months old, officially marking the second-longest since World War II (WWII). As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, only the 120-month expansion of the...

 

Friday, May 4, 2018

The great American naturalist Edwin Way Teale wrote, “The world’s favorite season is the spring. All things seem possible in May.” Investors often have a more pessimistic perspective heading into the spring and summer...

 

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

There’s good news for investors who were scared off by high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios when stocks sat at record highs in January: Rising earnings and the latest pullback in stocks have brought valuations down near long-term...

 

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Tomorrow is the first Friday the 13th to happen in October since 2006. Of course, this is a big day if you are unfortunate enough to suffer from triskaidekaphobia—the fear of the number 13. A fear of the actual day of Friday the...

 

Monday, October 9, 2017

Few investments have been more frustrating than small caps in 2017. After a huge rally immediately following the U.S. election last November, the group weighed on the broad market this year-that is until September rolled around. Per...

 

Friday, October 6, 2017

“We’re going streaking.” -Frank “The Tank” Ricard from Old School Equity markets continue to move higher, and as a result, several long streaks are taking place. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist,...

 

Monday, October 2, 2017

Hard to believe it, but the fourth quarter starts next week! Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “History has shown that the fourth quarter has frequently been kind to equities, as it includes the usually strong and...

 

Monday, September 25, 2017

Crude oil (WTI) increased approximately 18.7% off its June 21, 2017 bottom (price as of September 22, 2017) and is now testing resistance at its $50/barrel (bbl.) level. Today we assess a few technical analysis factors that we are...

 

Thursday, September 21, 2017

As was expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), passed on a rate hike but did announce that its balance sheet normalization program, first discussed in an addendum to the...

 

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Last Monday may not have felt like an important day for investors, but did you know it was the day that the current bull market in the S&P 500 Index officially became the second strongest since World War II (WWII), as the chart below...

 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Equity returns during September have historically been weak, as we noted in Everything You Wanted To Know About September, But Were Afraid To Ask. Since 1950*, no month for the S&P 500 Index sported a worse average return, and over the...

 

Monday, September 11, 2017

Fixed income has benefited from recent risk-off moves related to rising tensions with North Korea, the weather, and the debt ceiling, which caused the U.S. 10-year Treasury to hit its year-to-date low yield (high price) of 2.04% on...

 

Friday, September 8, 2017

Incorporating seasonal analysis into your portfolio management process is one way to mitigate risk and navigate through unexpected spikes in volatility during September. This can allow you to identify sectors and industries that may...

 

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

September has averaged a -1% return for the S&P 500 Index since 1928*—the worst performance of any month, as noted in yesterday’s blog. However, although September has historically been a weak period for stocks, bonds have...

 

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason since it has historically seen the worst performance. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist,...

 

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Over the past several days, thousands of people have been displaced since Hurricane Harvey made its initial landfall in eastern Texas. The images shown documenting its impact, especially in the areas hit with the heaviest devastation,...

 

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

The S&P 500 Index gained 0.7% last week, halting a two-week losing streak. But under the surface something very rare happened: it was the 50th consecutive week that the index hasn’t posted a weekly decline of at least 2%....

 

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Market Update: Thursday, June 30, 2016 Posted by lplresearch Rally sputters as equities, oil fall. U.S. equities are largely unchanged to start the final day of the quarter as traders continue to focus on uncertainty around Brexit,...