Over the past three months, investment-grade (IG) corporate debt has posted its strongest rally in more than two years as investors look for the sweet spot between quality and risk in fixed income. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day,...
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As this week’s Weekly Market Commentary suggested, over the near term equities appear quite stretched, but overall we continue to think the bull market has plenty of life left. Today, we’ll take a look at market...
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Economic growth could be lower than we initially expected this year, which could weigh on long-term rates. We’ve seen enough evidence recently to think 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be closer to 2.5%, the...
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Germany’s benchmark bund yield is on the cusp of negative territory, a symptom of increased appetite for government debt that could eventually weigh on U.S. rates. The 10-year bund yield, which closed at 0.09% (9 basis points, or...
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Investors have been especially patient during the S&P 500 Index’s 93-day drought of record highs, especially considering the gauge has posted a new high every 12 days on average in this bull market. However, history shows the S&P...
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) just delivered a widely expected, but important monetary policy decision. On January 30, policymakers decided to leave interest rates unchanged, removing the “some further gradual (rate) increases”...
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Jobless claims have dropped to a 49-year low. Based on historical trends, this could signal that a U.S. economic recession is further off than many expect. Data released January 24 showed jobless claims fell to 199K in the week ending...
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Brexit is getting a lot of headlines these days as the United Kingdom tries to figure out how to exit the European Union (EU). The uncertainty surrounding the British relationship with the rest of Europe has clearly weighed on the U.K....
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Recent U.S. economic data have been sending a lot of conflicting signals, and Wall Street’s economic outlook is more clouded than at any point of the cycle. Because of this, we thought we’d provide some direction from Main...
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Yesterday’s U.K. Parliament vote was another bump in the road for Brexit. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the British pound and the euro have steadily declined over the past few months, weighed down in large part by...
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The S&P 500 Index is off to its best start in years, but this is on the heels of the worst year for stocks since 2008. The trifecta of crashing oil prices, confusion from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and trade issues with China all...
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Stocks have rebounded strongly off the December lows, with the S&P 500 Index adding 2% in January to its 7% gain over the last week of 2018. We see potential for further gains ahead given the fundamentals supporting economic growth and...
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The December jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 312,000 last month, well above the median consensus estimate for a 184,000 increase. This was a record 99th consecutive month with positive jobs growth. The good news sparked a...
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Friday’s jobs report for December offered little for investors to complain about with far more jobs created than expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew 312K last month, significantly above the median consensus estimate for a 184K...
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Recent Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric has spooked financial markets, especially as uncertainty has clouded investors’ horizons. But we still believe the fundamental U.S. economic landscape is compelling, and despite market...
Read MoreDaily Insights U.S., China talks progress as Chinese economic slowdown continues. In a tweet over the weekend, President Trump suggested that a “deal is moving along very well” after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping...
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So far it’s been rough for stocks in December, a month that has historically been bullish. How bad has it been? After 10 trading days, we’re off to the worst start to December since 1980! In fact, the S&P 500 Index is...
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Investor confidence got a boost after President Donald Trump declared his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit December 1 “an amazing and productive meeting.” Both parties agreed to return to the...
Read MoreLast week was a tough week for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index down 4.5%, the worst performance since March. So what are some things investors should consider? To help answer that question, here are five takeaways on the near-term...
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Financial markets are desperately looking for direction these days. One issue rattling markets is the constant debate over the state of inflation. Inflationary pressures have accelerated this year, but over the past month, investors...
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Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) meet tomorrow in Vienna, with the focus on how to stabilize oil markets after crude oil fell 22% last month. A cut in production from OPEC and Russia is the most likely scenario...
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We expected another strong earnings season, and corporate America delivered with S&P 500 Index year-over-year earnings increasing 28% in the third quarter. A pickup in economic growth, strong manufacturing activity, and tax cuts were...
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Credit markets are now sharing global stocks’ angst over trade and oil. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, credit spreads on investment-grade and high-yield corporate debt have jumped to their highest levels since December...
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After the least volatile third quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1963, volatility has come back in a big way over the past six weeks. One of the big themes from Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle was to expect significantly...
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The midterm election is now behind us, so we’ve highlighted our thoughts below on what Congress’ flip could mean for different asset classes, including specific sectors that stand to win or lose from policy developments....
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November is #LongTermCareAwarenessMonth. Financial security for you & your loved ones requires a solid plan and hard work. But even the best laid out plans can encounter unexpected surprises and long term care costs can add up quickly....
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What a difference a week can make. Last Tuesday the S&P 500 Index closed at a new five-month low and there were many growing concerns. From China trade issues, to peak earnings, to slowing global growth, to a potential Federal Reserve...
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One corner of the credit market is showing some signs of angst from U.S. equities’ roughest October since the financial crisis. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the price of U.S. credit-default swaps (CDS), or a measure of...
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It’s been a rocky ride so far in October, but there is a silver lining. “Incredibly, the S&P 500 during a midterm year has never finished lower if you bought the October low and held till the end of the year,”...
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After the S&P 500 Index’s least volatile third quarter since 1963, October has ushered in a wave of volatility: Daily moves in excess of 1% now feel like the norm. Here’s what you need to know about volatility: It tends to...
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U.S. and European debt tell a tale of two increasingly different economies, days before the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next policy decision. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, on Thursday, October 18, the 10-year U.S....
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Third-quarter earnings season effectively kicks off today, and it should be another good one. S&P 500 Index companies are expected to report their ninth consecutive increase in profits and third consecutive quarter with earnings growth...
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Volatility is heating up in October, with some big drops for stocks late last week. Now let’s put things in perspective. The S&P 500 Index just had its least volatile third quarter since 1963, and it hasn’t closed up or...
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September’s jobs report (released today) showed nonfarm payrolls grew 134,000 last month, while the unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low. Although the September headline jobs number missed consensus forecasts by about 50,000...
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October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month. Did you know 1 in 8 women will develop invasive breast cancer in their lifetime? After skin cancer it is the mostcommon cancer diagnosed in women.1 Increased screening efforts and early...
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) wrapped up its most recent monetary policy meeting yesterday by announcing a rate increase – an outcome the markets largely expected. In our view, the Fed’s updated rate projections and an...
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As hard as it might be to believe, U.S. equities historically have been calm over the past few months. “If all you listened to was the news, you would think markets were having huge bouts of volatility. Turns out, that...
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It took nearly eight months, but the Dow finally closed at a new all-time high for the first time since late January. Various other indexes have been making new highs for a while now, which begs the question: What does it mean for...
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2018 continues to be a solid year for U.S. equities, even in the face of many well-documented concerns (we’re looking at trade worries and the flattening yield curve here). Want some good news? The calendar may quickly become a...
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On behalf of the LPL Research team, our thoughts go out to the millions of people who will be impacted by Hurricane Florence. We’ve had many requests this week to look at how equities do around major hurricanes and, using data...
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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) primary manufacturing gauge just posted its strongest reading in 14 years. Is that a clear signal the economic cycle still has fuel left in its tank, or could it mean the good times are...
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The MSCI Emerging Markets Index moved to a bear market last week, down more than 20% from the late January peak. Although this weakness cast many bearish headlines, here’s the catch: This type of volatility is actually quite...
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It is #LifeInsuranceAwarenessmonth! Not something people want to talk about but too important to ignore. Use this graphic from http://www.lifehappens.org to see what changes warrant a look in to life insurance. Give us a call and we...
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After gaining 19.4% last year, the S&P 500 is once again surging in 2018—up nearly 8.0%, with the Nasdaq 14.8% and Russell 2000 11.7% up even more as of 09/06/18. Could there be even more gains in store over the coming year? We...
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Mark your calendars, because S&P GICS sectors are scheduled to undergo one of their most significant makeovers in history. Effective September 28, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make significant changes to its Global Industrial...
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Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason, since it has historically performed the worst. Per Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, “September is...
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In May and June, speculative traders of Treasury futures were taking large short positions, believing that rates would move higher and the short positions would reap a profit. Since then, that net short position has increased by almost...
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Emerging market (EM) equities have been under pressure recently thanks to the combination of a stronger U.S. dollar, the ongoing U.S. and China trade dispute, concerns in Argentina, and now worries over the financial stability of...
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The recent depreciation of the Turkish lira has increased volatility in global markets. Other foreign currencies such as the South African rand have followed suit, leading to U.S. dollar strength and more pressure on broad-based...
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Last week’s inflation data showed that pricing pressures are at their strongest point of the economic cycle. To us, these reports are much less alarming than their headline readings suggest. While signs of price and wage...
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The S&P 500 Index is up approximately 8% since May when we were bombarded with warnings to “Sell in May and Go Away.” Remember, the worst six months of the year historically have taken place from May through October, while...
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Are you looking for a strategy that may give your portfolio a boost during what’s historically been one of the weakest months of the year for stocks? Well, our seasonal analysis in the LPL Chart of the Day highlights specific...
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The Midyear Outlook 2018 Video Is Here. You’ve read the publication, now it’s time to watch the video! Get a high-level snapshot of what the LPL Research team is watching for the rest of 2018 in our Midyear Outlook 2018:...
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It’s been a difficult stretch for fixed-income investors since yields bottomed in the summer of 2016. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 2-year cumulative total return for the broad high-quality bond market (as represented...
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The surprise summer rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index is on pace to gain for a fourth consecutive month. In fact, should July close in the green, over the past 21 months, the S&P 500 has closed higher all but three times. Here is...
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The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’...
Read MoreDaily Insights The full $500 billion? In an interview aired this morning, President Trump said he is ready to go with tariffs on $500 billion in Chinese imports in an effort to drive an agreement. Tariffs on just $34 billion in...
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The S&P 500 Index is on a three-month winning streak, and more gains may be in store for bulls. As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, in the last 15 instances when the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, and June (like 2018 just...
Read MoreDaily Insights Powell testifies before Congress. Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell emphasized a “solid pace” of U.S. economic growth in a testimony before Congress on Tuesday, a signal that the Fed plans on...
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Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, and S&P 500 companies are expected to report an eighth consecutive increase in quarterly profits. Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase for the quarter,...
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In a World of Rising Volatility, Will Opportunities Emerge? Find out in LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens, packed with the latest investment insights and market guidance to take you through the rest of the...
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One day is hardly anything to get too excited about, but the financials sector finally broke its record 13-session losing streak last Thursday after results from the second phase of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) capital review...
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“We’re going streaking.” -Frank “The Tank” Ricard from Old School The Russell 2000 Index closed higher for the eighth consecutive week last week, its longest win streak since late 2013. In fact, it...
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Though it comes as no surprise, escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. “We believe fiscal stimulus will offset proposed tariffs and that tensions between the U.S and China will not devolve into...
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The 2018 FIFA World Cup™ kicks off tomorrow, as 32 countries vie for one of the greatest trophies in the world of sports. The tournament has taken place every four years since 1930 (excluding World War II), making this the 21st...
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What a year 2018 has been for small caps. With the Russell 2000 Index up about 6% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index up only 2%, it has been quite the year so far for small companies. Tax reform is the big tailwind for the group,...
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So what do you hear? Are you Team Yanny or Team Laurel? In case you haven’t heard, some people hear the word “Yanny,” while others hear the word Laurel in this epic division. Take a listen here and see what you hear....
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Things are looking up for George Washington, as the dollar has staged a solid comeback after losing nearly 10% in 2017 and an additional 4% in January. Since its February lows, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied more than 5%. This...
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Solid economic growth should be good news for emerging market (EM) stocks, which have historically done well when economic growth in EM has accelerated relative to that of developed economies. Economic growth in emerging economies is...
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As Britain’s painfully complex break from the European Union (EU)—commonly referred to “Brexit”—continues to be worked out, a royal union is coming together over the weekend as Prince Harry and Meghan...
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As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, European economic data reached a noteworthy low on May 7, after Citi’s Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone dipped beneath -100 for the first time since 2011. (Citi’s surprise indexes...
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The peak earnings narrative has garnered significant attention this earnings season—in part because of a comment by Caterpillar’s management stating that the first quarter may have been the “high-water mark” for...
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The S&P 500 Index closed at its highest level since March 16 yesterday and is now up 1.85% for the year. But, what’s the significance? Well, since 1970, when the S&P 500 has closed higher year-to-date (on any day) during the...
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Inflation is in the headlines again after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell versus March readings. Headline CPI, which measures the prices that consumers pay for goods and...
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As the calendar turns to May, it also means the current economic expansion is now 107 months old, officially marking the second-longest since World War II (WWII). As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, only the 120-month expansion of the...
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The great American naturalist Edwin Way Teale wrote, “The world’s favorite season is the spring. All things seem possible in May.” Investors often have a more pessimistic perspective heading into the spring and summer...
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There’s good news for investors who were scared off by high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios when stocks sat at record highs in January: Rising earnings and the latest pullback in stocks have brought valuations down near long-term...
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Tomorrow is the first Friday the 13th to happen in October since 2006. Of course, this is a big day if you are unfortunate enough to suffer from triskaidekaphobia—the fear of the number 13. A fear of the actual day of Friday the...
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Few investments have been more frustrating than small caps in 2017. After a huge rally immediately following the U.S. election last November, the group weighed on the broad market this year-that is until September rolled around. Per...
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“We’re going streaking.” -Frank “The Tank” Ricard from Old School Equity markets continue to move higher, and as a result, several long streaks are taking place. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist,...
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Hard to believe it, but the fourth quarter starts next week! Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “History has shown that the fourth quarter has frequently been kind to equities, as it includes the usually strong and...
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Crude oil (WTI) increased approximately 18.7% off its June 21, 2017 bottom (price as of September 22, 2017) and is now testing resistance at its $50/barrel (bbl.) level. Today we assess a few technical analysis factors that we are...
Read MoreAs was expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), passed on a rate hike but did announce that its balance sheet normalization program, first discussed in an addendum to the...
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Last Monday may not have felt like an important day for investors, but did you know it was the day that the current bull market in the S&P 500 Index officially became the second strongest since World War II (WWII), as the chart below...
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Equity returns during September have historically been weak, as we noted in Everything You Wanted To Know About September, But Were Afraid To Ask. Since 1950*, no month for the S&P 500 Index sported a worse average return, and over the...
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Fixed income has benefited from recent risk-off moves related to rising tensions with North Korea, the weather, and the debt ceiling, which caused the U.S. 10-year Treasury to hit its year-to-date low yield (high price) of 2.04% on...
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Incorporating seasonal analysis into your portfolio management process is one way to mitigate risk and navigate through unexpected spikes in volatility during September. This can allow you to identify sectors and industries that may...
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September has averaged a -1% return for the S&P 500 Index since 1928*—the worst performance of any month, as noted in yesterday’s blog. However, although September has historically been a weak period for stocks, bonds have...
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Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason since it has historically seen the worst performance. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist,...
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Over the past several days, thousands of people have been displaced since Hurricane Harvey made its initial landfall in eastern Texas. The images shown documenting its impact, especially in the areas hit with the heaviest devastation,...
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The S&P 500 Index gained 0.7% last week, halting a two-week losing streak. But under the surface something very rare happened: it was the 50th consecutive week that the index hasn’t posted a weekly decline of at least 2%....
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Market Update: Thursday, June 30, 2016 Posted by lplresearch Rally sputters as equities, oil fall. U.S. equities are largely unchanged to start the final day of the quarter as traders continue to focus on uncertainty around Brexit,...
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